July 18, 2025 #1 Local News, Information and Event Source for the Century City/Westwood areas.

If There Really Is a Blue Wave, Which Seats Go Dem?

Nowhere has talk of an impending “blue wave” sweeping Democrats into Congress and Republicans out been louder and more constant this fall than in California, where the GOP held only 14 of the state’s 53 House seats even before election season began.

But as the vote proceeds by mail this month and nears a climax in polling booths, one thing seems likely: Democrats will not dominate quite as strongly here as they’ve hoped.

Yes, they do have the advantage that this mid-term election is largely a referendum on Donald Trump’s popularity as President. But no, Democrats probably won’t flip seven seats here – half the GOP total – as they’ve often said might be a key factor in gaining control of Congress’ lower house.

Example: Even though Democrats have often touted the approximately 40 percent Latino residency in Devin Nunes’ 22nd District, it has been several cycles since his vote total was under 68 percent of all those cast. Even now, with reams of national publicity over his questionable conduct as a Trump acolyte while chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, the often-authoritative Cook Report still rates the 22nd a “solid Republican” district.

This despite the very recent revelation by Vanity Fair magazine that Nunes, who often says he’s a Tulare-area dairy farmer, and his family long ago moved their operation to Iowa. Only an uncle still has a local dairy farm, the magazine reported.

So this seat, once considered a decent possibility for the Democrats, will likely stay red. Probably, so will Tom McClintock’s 4th district in the Sierra Nevada foothills east and southeast of Sacramento, despite his getting his first taste in many years of serious Democratic opposition.

But there almost certainly will be some Democratic pickups, as several Republican-held seats are now rated tossups or leaning Democratic. One that leans Democratic is the 49th district in north San Diego County and south Orange County. There Democrat Mike Levin has led Republican Diane Harkey by a 10-point margin for the seat long held by the GOP’s Darrell Issa, currently listed as the richest man in Congress due to his car alarm fortune.

Another seat looking promising for Democrats is the coastal Orange County district long dominated by Republican Dana Rohrabacher, sometimes called “Vladimir Putin’s favorite congressman” because of his frequent Russophile remarks. Recent data showed Democrat Harley Rouda either even or leading narrowly over Rohrabacher.

Democrat Katie Porter also appears to have a decent shot at beating Republican Mimi Walters in another Orange County district, the 45th, where Walters took 59 percent of the vote two years ago. A Walters loss would be a major turnaround attributable almost completely to Walters’ strong backing of Trump.

Democrat Katie Hill’s attempt to unseat Republican Steve Knight in the 25th District, centered on Santa Clarita, also is rated a tossup in most polls. Knight won only narrowly two years ago, and appears vulnerable.

So does Republican Jeff Denham in the 10th District, centered on Modesto. Like Nunes’ district, the 10th has a large Latino populace, but Denham drew just 52 percent of the vote last time out, far behind Nunes’ 2016 performance. Democrats will spend more than $4 million trying to take over this district.

But they are not doing as well in the 39th District in northern Orange County and some parts of Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties. Long held by the retiring Republican Ed Royce, now chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, this district was considered ripe for plucking by the Democrats, but that party’s candidate, Gil Cisneros, trailed Republican Young Kim by about 4 percentage points in one recent poll.

If Democrats win all the races now leaning their way, but lose any of those that appear to be tossups right now, there’s a good chance they may not take over the House, which comes with investigative powers many of them are salivating to use against Trump, just as the GOP used them to hound former President Barack Obama.

The bottom line: There will likely be something of a blue wave when the results start pouring in on Election Night, but anyone claiming it will be of tsunami size may prove to have been carried away.

Email Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com. His book, “The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It,” is now available in a soft cover fourth edition. For more Elias columns, go to www.californiafocus.net

Related Posts

Man Arrested in Brentwood for Impersonating Firefighter During Palisades Fire

July 18, 2025

July 18, 2025

The suspect faces at least 28 criminal counts—including 23 felonies—spanning incidents from 2023 to May 2025 Federal and local law...

Study Highlights Economic Impact of Cap-and-Trade Extension in Los Angeles

July 18, 2025

July 18, 2025

Governor Gavin Newsom and legislative leaders are pushing to reauthorize the program this year, citing its role in generating 287,000...

Nearly $1B Secured for Refinancing of Westfield Century City Mall

July 17, 2025

July 17, 2025

The proceeds will replace a $925 million commercial mortgage-backed securities loan, originally issued by Morgan Stanley in 2023 and due...

West Coast Premiere of ‘The Opposite of Love’ Opens at Hudson Backstage Theatre

July 17, 2025

July 17, 2025

Produced by Neil Gooding Productions, behind shows like Back to the Future: The Musical, the play runs Thursdays through Saturdays...

Tesla Seen Nearly Crashing into West LA Home After Collision

July 17, 2025

July 17, 2025

Footage depicted a blue Prius on the road with significant front-end damage A crash involving injuries was reported around 12:30...

DUI Checkpoints to be Conducted Across LA This Weekend

July 16, 2025

July 16, 2025

The LAPD selects checkpoint sites based on data indicating high incidents of impaired driving-related crashes and arrests The Los Angeles...

Mayor Bass Hails National Guard Withdrawal as Victory for Unity

July 16, 2025

July 16, 2025

The Pentagon’s decision to reduce the troop presence follows weeks of legal challenges and public demonstrations Mayor Karen Bass celebrated...

(Video) Did You Know Emma Chamberlain’s Coffee Shop is in Century City?

July 16, 2025

July 16, 2025

The outpost is a first for the popular influencer Did You Know Emma Chamberlain’s Coffee Shop is in Century City?...

Dodgers to Host Back to School Bash for Fire-Affected Families

July 16, 2025

July 16, 2025

The free event will offer free groceries, school supplies, outfits, haircuts, medical screenings, and carnival rides The Los Angeles Dodgers...

Hundreds of Red-Legged Frog Tadpoles Released in Santa Monica Mountains

July 16, 2025

July 16, 2025

Once widespread in California, red-legged frogs vanished from the Santa Monica Mountains by the 1970s Nearly 600 California red-legged frog...

LA Sees Second Straight Year of Homelessness Decline, Leaders Celebrate Progress

July 16, 2025

July 16, 2025

The survey, designed by the University of Southern California, reported a 17.5% drop—the largest two-year decrease on record The Los...

Westwood Village Board to Discuss Public Art Initiative

July 15, 2025

July 15, 2025

The initiative aims to enhance community pride, boost local business revenue, and address urban blight through public art corridors and...

Beverly Hills Plans Major Apartment Development Near Civic Center

July 15, 2025

July 15, 2025

The site, currently holding 13 residential units, is slated for demolition to make way for the new development A proposal...

Federal Judge Sides with Santa Monica, Other Local Governments Against Immigration Raids

July 15, 2025

July 15, 2025

Santa Monica Mayor Lana Negrete praised the ruling, saying it reaffirmed the city’s commitment to protecting residents from unjust detention...

California Hits Two-Thirds Clean Energy Milestone

July 15, 2025

July 15, 2025

This year, clean energy has powered the state for an average of seven hours daily, with over 90% of days...